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Predicting the Globes

January 6, 2019

Best Picture – Drama

(Photo by Neal Preston © 2018 WARNER BROS. ENTERTAINMENT INC. AND METRO-GOLDWYN-MAYER PICTURES INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED)

 

  • Black Panther

  • BlacKkKlansman

  • Bohemian Rhapsody

  • If Beale Street Could Talk

  • A Star is Born

Unless the HFPA does something completely unexpected, which is not hard to imagine, I see ‘A Star is Born’ as the heavy, heavy favorite. The direction, music, and individual performances were simply too good to overlook, and they all add up to my favorite film of the nominees. If there’s arguments to be made against it here, it’s that it’s a remake or possibly more musical than drama. But I don’t think it matters. If there’s an upset to be had here, it’s ‘BlackkKlansman.’ And if there’s a rampant drug problem with the HFPA voters, the pick is ‘Bohemian Rhapsody.’

Best Picture – Musical or Comedy

Photo Credit: Universal Pictures, Participant, and DreamWorks © 2018 UNIVERSAL STUDIOS AND STORYTELLER DISTRIBUTION CO., LLC. All Rights Reserved.)

  • Crazy Rich Asians

  • The Favourite

  • Green Book

  • Mary Poppins Returns

  • Vice

 

With the exception of ‘Vice,’ I truly enjoyed every film in this category, and could make an argument as to why they should win. But in the end, I think we’ll see ‘Green Book’ take home the honor, setting up a two-film race to Oscar gold. While assuredly a comedy, the movie takes on some pretty meaty topics – race relations, socioeconomics, sexuality – and delivers them in a way that’s impactful, but not heavy-handed. Most importantly – it delivers entertainment value. If there’s an upset to be had, it’s ‘The Favourite,’ which with its period costumes and three outstanding individual performances, screams “awards season.” And in the bizarro world of rampant HFPA drug use (see above), the winner will be ‘Vice.’

Best Actress – Drama

(Photo courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures © 2018 WARNER BROS. ENTERTAINMENT INC. AND METRO-GOLDWYN-MAYER PICTURES INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED)

  • Glenn Close, The Wife

  • Lady Gaga, A Star is Born

  • Nicole Kidman, Destroyer

  • Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

  • Rosamund Pike, A Private War

 

This, to me, is one of the most intriguing categories of the whole night. I think three or potentially four of the Best Actress Oscar nominees are listed here (Close, Gaga, McCarthy for sure, and possibly Kidman). My money is on Gaga for a few reasons: a) she’s outstanding in the role, b) it was a bit unexpected that she’d be that good, c) the film, which is one of the best of the year, leans heavily on its individual performances, so (at least in theory) you can reward the film, without acknowledging its individual parts. But I also wouldn’t take my eyes off of Close – she’s a well-respected veteran that’s never won a Globe for film (TV movie/miniseries and TV series wins), she’s outstanding in what’s an otherwise forgettable movie, and said film takes place outside of the U.S., which might appeal to HFPA voters.

Best Actor – Drama

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  • Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

  • Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

  • Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

  • Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

  • John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

 

If it’s me, I’m voting for Cooper as the aging, troubled, and talented Jackson Maine. Cooper embodied the character, and grew into the role of a musician in the same way Ryan Gosling did for ‘La La Land.’ Unfortunately, physical transformation often trumps substance in these categories, so I’m leaning Malek for his portrayal of Queen frontman Freddie Mercury. Malek became Freddie, and for younger generations he’ll probably be the face they see when listening to Queen music going forward. He’s very deserving, but even his outstanding performance could only elevate the film to barely watchable status. In other words, if there’s a classic HFPA move to be made, this would be the place.

Best Actress – Comedy or Musical

(Photo by Atsushi Nishijima. © 2018 Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation All Rights Reserved)

  • Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

  • Olivia Colman, The Favourite

  • Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade

  • Charlize Theron, Tully

  • Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians

 

This one comes down to two nominees – Colman and Blunt. Both were outstanding and magical in completely different ways. Colman brought the complex and powerful Queen Anne to life, portraying a woman who is both powerful and somehow frail, strong-willed yet vulnerable – a full and intricate character. On the other hand, Blunt delivers pure joy to the screen in taking over the Poppins mantle from Julie Andrews. It takes a lot to take over for an iconic character, but it takes even more to give it a fresh feel while remaining respectful of the cherished original. Regardless of who wins, I think both will compete Kidman for the final two Best Actress Oscar nominations.

Best Actor – Comedy or Musical

(Photo by Matt Kennedy / Annapurna Pictures 2018 © Annapurna Pictures, LLC. All Rights Reserved.)